Rates of COVID deaths and cases differ markedly across U.S. states, as do rates of vaccination. This study uses cross-state regressions to assess impacts of vaccinations on COVID outcomes. A number of familiar issues concerning cross-sectional regressions arise, including omitted variables, behavioral responses to vaccination, and reverse causation. The benefits from a field context and from the broad range of observed variations suggest the value from dealing with these issues. Results along these lines reveal sizable negative effects of vaccination on deaths and cases up to early December 2021, although vaccine efficacy seems to wane over time. The estimates imply that 250 additional doses, with a marginal cost around $5000, leads to one expected life saved. This $5000 is far below typical estimates of the value of a statistical life. Results since December 2021 suggest smaller effects of vaccinations on deaths and, especially, cases. These findings may reflect diminishing effectiveness of vaccines against new forms of the virus, especially the omicron variant. A further possibility is that confidence engendered by vaccinations may have motivated individuals and governments to lessen non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as masking and social distancing.
Authors
- Acknowledgements & Disclosure
- The research reported in this working paper was supported by the National Institute on Aging of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number P30AG012810. The content is solely the responsibility of the author and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. I have benefited from comments by Stephen Barro, David Cutler, Ed Glaeser, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Rui Mano, Bruce Meyer, Michael Strain, Stan Veuger, and Mark Warshawsky. The views expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.3386/w29884
- Published in
- United States of America
