Rosgvardia is deployed to the occupied areas, like Kherson, and has been detaining activists, quashing protests, and engaging in other forms of suppression alongside the Russian Armed Forces.14 Russian atrocities in Ukraine are not a new phenomenon. [...] Terror is part of the Kremlin’s offset efforts to compensate for the limitations of Russia’s military power and the lack of value that the Kremlin can offer those it is trying to control—both inside and outside Russia. [...] People in Kherson, for example, have been protesting Russian forces and Rosgvardia.17 Russia has used terror and the indiscriminate killing of civilians in its previous military campaigns in Chechnya and Syria to pacify resistant populations in those areas.18 Russia will continue terrorizing the population until Ukraine drives Russia out of its land. [...] The Kremlin will use any ceasefire it offers to adapt, not scale down, its ambitions to erode and ultimately destroy Ukraine’s sovereignty.19 Stopping the fighting will not necessarily stop the killing—it will leave those Ukrainians trapped behind enemy lines unable to defend themselves and will allow Russian forces in Ukraine to focus more on filtration efforts in the areas they occupy. [...] The outcome of this phase is far from determined, as Russia struggles to amass the combat power necessary to achieve its military objectives in Donbas.20 2 Institute for the Study of War 2022 With proper and timely military aid, Ukraine has a chance to win the second phase by pushing back Russia’s offensive and continuing its efforts to liberate Russia-held areas.
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