Overweight and obesity prevalence projections for the UK, England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland (data to 2019/2020)

The results of an analysis published by Cancer Research UK today estimate that more than 21 million UK adults will be obese by 2040, which equates to almost 4 in 10 of the UK adult population (36%). The analysis also suggests that if current overweight and obesity trends continue, the number of UK adults who are overweight or obese may exceed this, reaching around 7 in 10 people, or 42 million people, by 2040, 71% of the population. Worryingly, the report also indicates that the number of people who are obese could overtake the number who are a healthy weight in the UK by 2040. The report also suggests those experiencing higher levels of deprivation could suffer the most. In England in 2019, 35% of people living in the most deprived areas were obese, and this is estimated to increase to almost half (46%) by 2040. In comparison, 22% of people living in the least deprived areas were obese in 2019 and this is estimated to increase to 25%. These projections predict an increase in the relative deprivation gap for obesity prevalence between the least and most deprived quintiles by 13%, from 45% in 2019, to 58% by 2040 in England.