Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - Kateryna Stepanenko and Frederick W. Kagan May 13, 7:00 pm ET

The main Russian effort continues to be the attempt to encircle Severodonetsk and Lysychansk from the north and from the south. [...] Mariupol Mayor Advisor Petro Andryushenko published geolocated images of Russian forces conducting an assault on an area east of the highway, indicating that Russian forces have successfully pushed the Ukrainian defenders back from the Azovstal’s entrance but that Ukrainian forces continue to resist.15 Russian forces also continued to shell and conduct airstrikes in the western parts of Azovstal,. [...] The Ukrainian General Staff reported for the first time that Russian forces focused on ensuring the withdrawal of units situated around Kharkiv City on May 13.18 The Russian command is also likely prioritizing the withdrawal of Russian troops over that of its proxies. [...] The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration added that locals have spotted Russian military trucks in the vicinity of Berdyansk and Melitopol and reported interrupted signals in the area, likely due to the transfer of military equipment and/or personnel from Donetsk Oblast to the west.23 Russian forces may have paused their efforts to annex Kherson Oblast, possibly due to their insufficient cont. [...] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces are transferring additional artillery units to Bryansk Oblast to increase their shelling of Ukrainian border settlements.29 Immediate items to watch • Russian forces will likely complete their withdrawal from the vicinity of Kharkiv City but attempt to hold a line west of Vovchansk to defend their GLOCs from Belgorod to Izyum.