Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 16 Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, and Frederick W. Kagan

Strelkov notably claimed that Russian failures thus far have not surprised him because the intent of Russian command has been so evident throughout the operation that Ukrainian troops are aware of exactly how to best respond and warns that Russian troops are fighting to the point of exhaustion under “rules proposed by the enemy.” The continued disenchantment of pro-Russian milbloggers with the Rus. [...] The Head of the Luhansk Regional State Administration Serhiy Haidai stated that Russian forces in the area are focusing on securing territory from the direction of Bilohorivka, continuing attempts to seize Severodonetsk, and taking control of the highway to Lysychansk.10 The Ukrainian General Staff noted that Russian forces did not conduct active ground operations in Severodonetsk and instead heav. [...] 3 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 202 4 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 202 Supporting Effort #1—Mariupol (Russian objective: Capture Mariupol and reduce the Ukrainian defenders) Russian and Ukrainian officials negotiated the evacuation of 264 wounded Mariupol defenders from Azovstal Steel Plant to occupied Donetsk Oblast on May 16.17 Ukr. [...] The Donetsk People’s Republic claimed that proxy militia will demine the port by May 25.21 Russian forces have raised a sunken Ukrainian ship from the sea floor in the port on May 15.22 Andryushenko said another sunken Ukrainian ship and mines are preventing Russian forces from reopening the port.23 5 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 202 6 Institute for the Study of Wa. [...] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces are continuing rescue operations on Snake Island following Ukrainian strikes against the Russian grouping on the island.35 The situation in Transnistria did not change.36 9 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 202 10 Institute for the Study of War & The Critical Threats Project 202 Immediate items to watch.