The Role of Aviation Demand Reduction in UK Decarbonisation

A new report from Element Energy (EE), commissioned by the Aviation Environment Federation (AEF), has concluded that aviation demand reduction is required to hit economy-wide emission targets. Government’s ‘Jet Zero’ plans overestimate the likely improvements in operations, technology and alternative fuels and rely on uncertain solutions, it finds. Significant risks include relying on improved system efficiencies, assuming high sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) uptake levels, a misleading portrayal of SAF emissions abatements and failing to account for the non-CO2 impacts of aviation. While new technologies and fuels will be necessary, they are unlikely to be developed at the speed and scale needed to deliver net zero aviation without reductions in demand being delivered in parallel. The report concludes that a halt to airport capacity growth and demand reduction measures pose a far less risky approach to hitting net zero aviation by 2050 and the 78% economy-wide emissions cut to which the Government has committed by 2035. EE criticises the trajectory of the Government’s preferred scenario for delivering ‘Jet Zero’, and argues for an alternative approach that requires the sector to make deeper cuts to its emissions in the near-term to help reduce risk and to minimise the total amount of CO2 emitted between now and 2050.