Coherent Identifier About this item: 20.500.12592/bwkhpd

Big welcomes and long goodbyes - The impact of demographic change in the 2020s

15 June 2022

Summary

Using the total number of people in each year reaching the State Pension Age (SPA) and the number of people turning 22 as a proxy for labour market exits and entrants, we find that ‘lifecycle’ flows in and out of the labour market could reach record highs in the coming decades: the number of people reaching SPA is expected to surpass 800,000 in 2028 for the first time ever while the number of peop. [...] These ebbs and flows bring change to the economy and public services in myriad ways: from changing levels of demand for education and health services, to changing levels of labour supply in the economy.2 This note is focused on those implications, and specifically how the type and level of demographic change affecting the UK in the medium will affect the size and shape of its labour market and its. [...] economy2030.resolutionfoundation.org The Economy 2030 Inquiry | Big welcomes and long goodbyes 11 Changes in the population will influence the growth rate of the UK’s labour supply The rate of population growth is likely to slow considerably over the next two decades, with negative implications for output growth Demographic change will influence the absolute size of the UK’s workforce, and its rat. [...] Taken together, the lifecycle flows in and out of the labour market should drive economic change into the mid-2030s to which the UK – as a result of the age-composition of the workforce – should be in an optimal position to exploit the opportunities that come with it. [...] Change in the UK’s age profile may alter the shape of the UK economy through a change in the goods and services required Demographic change will drive demand for recreation and culture and health and social care Beyond affecting the dynamics of the labour market and output growth, demographic change is likely to have significant impacts on other areas of the UK economy.

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