Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - Karolina Hird, Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, and Grace Mappes June 12, 6:30 pm ET

We will continue to evaluate and report on the effects of these criminal activities on the Ukrainian military and population and specifically on combat in Ukrainian urban areas. [...] The Russians likely expect instead to be able to break out of their positions either around Toshkivka or from Popasna to the north and then encircle Lysychansk or attack it from the west bank of the Siverskyi Donets, thereby obviating the need to seize the bridges or conduct an opposed crossing. [...] 5 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022 6 Institute for the Study of War & AEI’s Critical Threats Project 2022 Supporting Effort #1—Kharkiv City (Russian objective: Withdraw forces to the north and defend ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum) Russian forces likely attempted to push Ukrainian forces back from contested frontlines in northeastern Kharkiv Obla. [...] Head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin met with the governor of Russia’s Leningrad Oblast, Alexander Drodzenko, to secure his patronage for Yanikevo and Vuhledar, two towns in Donetsk Oblast with pre-war populations of 77,000 and 14,000, respectively.19 Leningrad Oblast has a population of over 1,000,000 and is one of the most significant and wealthy areas of Russia.20 It would. [...] Its commitment instead to two small and insignificant towns suggests a certain lack of enthusiasm by Russian regional officials to take on the burdens of rebuilding large areas that Russian forces obliterated in the process of seizing.