The Big Brexit: An assessment of the scale of change to come from Brexit

This report finds that the expected large relative decline in UK-EU exports haven’t occurred and instead Brexit appears to be weighing on both UK openness and competitiveness across both EU and non-EU markets. It will take many years for the UK economy to fully adjust and this report provides the most detailed assessment to date of the long-run impacts of the final deal (Trade and Cooperation Agreement, TCA) agreed with the EU. It finds that the long-run impacts will mean significant change for some sectors of our economy –for example, fishing – but the aggregate effect will be to reduce household incomes as a result of a weaker pound, and lower investment and trade. This adjustment will be substantial, but we should not expect it to fundamentally alter the nature of our economy, including the UK’s overall services focus and export specialisation. Understanding the scale and nature of this change, and the extent of progress so far, is crucial for policy makers looking to reset the country’s economic strategy. That is the focus of this report, part of the Resolution Foundation's Economy 2030 Inquiry.