Return versus onward migration: Go back or move on?

We use a unique administrative panel for the entire population of recent labour immig- rants to the Netherlands covering the years 1999-2007 (before the onset of the financial crisis) with information on the timing of out-migration, the destination of out-migration and the exact detailed information on their labour market status and earnings. [...] The model identifies the effect of total earnings separately from the effect of migration duration, the time spend in the country, on the out-migration hazards. [...] In the remainder of the paper, we test our hypothesis on the effects of unemployment and the role played by total earnings on the hazard rate of return versus onward migration. [...] 9 Since the duration of migration, the length of stay in the host country, might affect the intensity of out-migration, we take the timing of out-migration into account and calculate the cumulative incidence functions, and the probability of out-migration by type (return, EU onward, non-EU onward or unknown) by months since entry in the country. [...] The (endogenous) value of the earnings of the migrant increases over the length of the time spent in employment using the implied earnings increase (11) obtained from the estimated model.