FORECASTING PENETRATION OF ELECTRIC TWO-WHEELERS - IN INDIA

On an average, the battery contributes 40% of the total vehicle cost and accordingly the rate at which the vehicle manufacturing cost will reduce can be assumed to be 40% of the rate of reduction of the battery cost. [...] The total capital cost to the buyer is the sum of the price of the vehicle and the cost of infrastructure, if applicable. [...] The cost due to the replacement of battery during the lifetime of the vehicle is perceived by the buyer with respect to the battery cost at the time of the purchase of the vehicle and the number of times battery replacement may be required during the vehicle lifetime. [...] The total number of electric two-wheelers that can be supported by the charging infrastructure planned till the year i (total number of active charging points as per the plan) E i − 1 N chplanevchplan = −x E ∑Nev, kpub avev k = 1 Where, xpub is the share of public charging points in the total energy demand for charging of all electric two-wheelers and xtw is the share of two-wheelers in the energy. [...] Forecasting Penetration of Electric Two-Wheelers in India 37 Number of registered vehicles (thoudsnds) PROJECTED SCENARIOS 5 OF EV TWO- WHEELERS PENETRATION 5.1 Definition of the Scenarios A number of variables influence the projections of the annual level of market penetration of electric two-wheelers and it is possible to create many scenarios using the Agent-based model.