India’s draft 2021 liquefied natural gas (LNG) Policy shows that it plans to increase the share of fossil gas to 15% of total primary energy consumption by 2030, up from the current level of 6%, with LNG set to be the biggest supplier of this future gas demand (Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, 2021a). [...] 21 Natural gas in end-use sectors While the share of natural gas in India’s final energy consumption has largely remained flat in recent years, at around 4%, overall energy demand has risen rapidly, and there have been significant shifts in demand for natural gas in specific sectors of the economy. [...] With increased expansion of the city gas distribution (CGD) network3, natural gas use in the buildings and transport sector has nearly doubled over the past decade (12% in 2011 to 22% in 2019) with particular share of 11% from transport sector (MoSPI, 2021; NGV Global, 2018) These increases have, however, been partially offset by a fall in the use of fossil gas for power generation. [...] The current plans of replacing coal with fossil gas in power generation would undermine the ability of the power sector to achieve sufficient emissions reductions and pose a challenge for the transforma- tion of the power system, with high risks of stranded assets in a Paris Agreement compatible world (See section 3.2 for details). [...] The spot price of natural gas imports over a period of twenty years is rather complex as the future price of natural gas depends on the policies and circumstances in other countries and regions.
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