Plastic & Climate: The hidden costs of a plastic planet

Amidst growing concern about the impacts of plastic on the oceans, ecosystems, and human health, there’s another largely hidden dimension of the plastic crisis: plastic’s contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. This report examines each of these stages of the plastic lifecycle to identify the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions, sources of uncounted emissions, and uncertainties that likely lead to underestimation of plastic’s climate impacts. The report compares greenhouse gas emissions estimates against global carbon budgets and emissions commitments, and it considers how current trends and projections will impact our ability to reach agreed emissions targets. It also compiles data, such as downstream emissions and future growth rates, that have not previously been accounted for in widely used climate models. This accounting paints a grim picture: plastic proliferation threatens our planet and the climate at a global scale. Chapter 1: Introduction 11 Chapter 2: Methodology 15 Chapter 3: Calculating the Climate Costs of Plastic 15 Estimates of Cradle-to-Resin Emissions Rates 17 Previous Efforts to Measure Plastic’s Lifecycle Impact 17 Plastic Production Growth Estimates 2015–2100 18 Estimating Plastic’s Impact on Global Carbon Budgets 21 Chapter 4: Extraction and Transport 21 The Origins of Plastic: Olefins 23 The Growth of Petrochemical Production 24 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Oil and Gas Production for Plastic Feedstocks 26 Natural Gas in the United States 27 Greenhouse Gases from Natural Gas Extraction . 28 Hydraulic Fracturing . 30 Venting and Flaring . 31 Leaking Tanks and Pipelines . 32 Transport 32 Water Hauling . 32 Waste Disposal . 32 Other Traffic . 33 Pipeline Construction and Compressor Stations . 34 Land Disturbance . 37 Natural Gas Storage and Disposal . 37 Gas Processing . 38 Case Study: Pennsylvania . 41 Extraction and Transport Emissions Gaps Chapter 5: Refining and Manufacture 43 Challenges of Calculating Emissions from Refining and Manufacture 44 Emissions Sources 45 Steam Cracking 46 Case Study: US Ethylene Production and Projected Expansions 50 Resin Manufacturing 52 Plastic Product Manufacturing 52 Reducing Emissions in Plastic Manufacturing 55 Chapter 6: Plastic Waste Management 55 “End of Life” is Not End of Impact 57 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Plastic Waste Disposal 57 Waste Incineration and Waste-to-Energy 62 Landfilling 63 Recycling 64 Other Known Unknowns 65 An Alternative Path: Zero Waste 69 Chapter 7: Plastic in the Environment 69 Plastic in the Ocean 70 Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Plastic: Hawaii Case Study 71 Virgin vs. Aged Plastic 72 Physical Features 72 Estimating Direct Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Ocean Plastic 74 Potential Impact of Microplastic on the Oceanic Carbon Sink 77 Reducing the Climate Impact of Plastic in the Environment 79 Chapter 8: Findings and Recommendations 79 Plastic and Cumulative Greenhouse Gas Emissions 80 Lifecycle Plastic Emissions Relative to Mitigation Scenarios and Carbon Budget Targets 82 Recommendations