Prediction Errors of Macroeconomic Indicators and Economic Shocks for ASEAN Member States, 1990‒2021

Meanwhile, after the 2000s, significantly positive correlations exist in relation to the world: Malaysia and Singapore in the 2000s and 2010s; and Thailand, the Philippines, and Viet Nam in the 2000s. [...] With respect to Malaysia and the Philippines, while the estimates of exm are not significant in Estimations (1) and (2), those in Estimation (4) are significantly positive, because the estimates of exm absorb a part of the effect of ggdp.21 Meanwhile, the estimates of exm in Estimations (1)−(6) for Singapore and Thailand are significantly positive. [...] Third, a comparison of exm between 2001−2020 and 1990−2021 (excluding 2000) demonstrates while the estimates for the Philippines and Singapore almost remain the same, estimates for Malaysia and Thailand in the former period are smaller than in the latter one; and the estimate for Viet Nam is significantly positive only in the latter period, although the numerical value is still small. [...] The Effect of the COVID-19 Pandemic This section summarises the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic through the lens of prediction errors of macroeconomic indicators, in particular, real GDP growth rates. [...] Indonesia’s economy in the first half of the 1990s remained stable, but the average prediction errors of the real GDP growth rates in the 1990s recorded −1.83% points due to the large negative economic shock caused by the Asian financial crisis.