Cleaning up heat: The changing economics for heat pumps in Poland

Economics of heat in Poland Impact of volatile fossil fuel markets Prior to the energy price surge in 2022, the total cost of ownership (TCO) for a heat pump was much higher than for a coal stove or a gas boiler in Poland. [...] A doubling and tripling of the price of residential coal (currently under a government price cap) leads to a TCO increase of 82% and 164%, respectively. [...] Figure 2 evaluates the impact of such a proposal by comparing the TCO of a heat pump versus a coal stove and a gas boiler across two scenarios: 1) under the introduced block tariff up to 2,000 kWh, and 2) if the block tariff were extended to 5,000 kWh for heat pump owners, exempting 80% of a heat pump’s electricity use from high retail rates. [...] Based on the average Polish electricity demand of 2,000 kWh, this would cover 3,000 kWh of electrified heat, or 80% of the electricity for heat — the average Polish household with fully electric heat from a heat pump uses 3,800 kWh. [...] The ratio between the prices was based on the additional electricity demand covered by the heat pump and the assumption that no previous heat demand was covered by electricity.