Policy Perspectives - Minsk’s Signals: Belarus and the War in Ukraine

on the Belarusian protest movement since August 2020, for which the Krem- Lukashenka’s preferences for the war in Ukraine are different from lin supported and the West isolated him, the Kremlin’s and the Belarusian population’s. [...] Lukashenka is hugely wary of such a step, which would tie him even Nuance is key to comprehend Belarus’ position and options for closer to a war Russia can hardly win and reacting to it and can prepare observers and policymakers for a time alienate the overwhelming majority of after the war in Ukraine and for the post-Lukashenka era. [...] win and preserving Belarusian indepen- Despite the limitations on the ground, Chatham House offers the most dence are common goals of the Lukashen- comprehensive and reliable surveys on the attitude of Belarusians to- ka regime, the Belarusian opposition wards the war in Ukraine. [...] At the summit of the Collective Security kashenka regime and the likely long-term interests and Treaty Organization in Moscow in May, Lukashenka called preferences of the majority of Belarusians. [...] In spring Since the February invasion, Lukashenka has touted the al- during the negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian leged threat of NATO or Ukrainian troops infiltrating into delegations, Belarus was keen to host talks and suggested Belarus and thus justified the need to partially mobilize and that Belarus should also be part of security guarantee ar- deploy troops to, and thus to protect,.