Special Report of COVID-19 Impacts on Energy Demand and Energy-Saving Potential in East Asia, 2021

COVID-19 13 Scenarios, 2017–2050 Figure 2.6 Total Primary Energy Supply Breakdown, Business-as-Usual and 13 COVID-19 Scenarios, in 2050 Figure 3.1 Annual Growth Rate of Final Energy Consumption, by Sector, 18 COVID-19 Scenario, 2018–2023 Figure 3.2 Annual Growth Rate of Final Energy Consumption by Fuel, 19 COVID-19 Scenario, 2018–2023 Figure 3.3 Annual Growth Rate of Primary Energy Supply, by Sour. [...] 5 The share of the ASEAN 8 in total primary energy supply in 2050 is the same in the BAU and COVID-19 scenarios. [...] Final Energy Consumption TFEC in the COVID-19 scenario increases by an average of 0.2% per year in 2017–2050 (0.3% in BAU) because the economy grows by an annual average rate of 2.0%, nearly the same as in BAU, in 2017–2050. [...] This study, therefore, uses the energy outlook model in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, which was updated for the 2019 energy outlook (ERIA, 2019), and analyses how energy demand is reduced by COVID-19 in 2020 and how energy demand rebounds after 2020 in the COVID-19 scenario. [...] Macro Assumptions of the COVID-19 Scenario The annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate in the COVID-19 scenario in 2020 decreases by about 3.5% (5.7% in BAU) and rebounds by 3.5% in 2021, 5.5% in 2022, 5.5% in 2023, 5.5% in 2024, and 6.5% in 2025.