Climate Change and Regional Instability in the Horn of Africa

2 Climate Change and Regional Instability in the Horn of Africa ASSESSING THE LAY OF THE LAND Demographic, Economic, Political, and Environmental Conditions in the Horn The Horn of Africa, like most of the continent, is characterized by rapidly growing and urbanizing populations (see figure 1). [...] Four of the twenty they named were in the Horn of Africa (Ethiopia, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan).21 The nexus between climate and conflict has long been understood in the Horn; at the subregional level, IGAD’s conflict early warning and early response mechanism acknowledges the impor- tance of flagging conditions that increase the likelihood of cross-border pastoral conflicts—the same conflict. [...] Institute of Peace’s Senior Study Group on Peace and Security in the Red Sea Arena found that “the Horn of Africa is now an integral part of and in fact the link among the security systems of the Middle East, the Indo Pacific, and the Mediterranean by virtue of the strategic importance of and competition for influence over the Red Sea and the states that border and depend upon it for trade and tra. [...] Consequences Beyond the Region 15 RECOMMENDATIONS The road ahead in the Horn of Africa will undoubtedly be rocky, but the United States can take steps to decrease the likelihood of worst- case scenarios, strengthen regional capacity to adapt to climate change and capitalize on green-economy opportunities, and maintain the possibility of beneficial, collaborative relationships in the Horn. [...] The IGAD Protocol on the free movement of people and transhumance can be an important building block for constructing rule-based guardrails to manage the inevitable 20 Climate Change and Regional Instability in the Horn of Africa migratory flows of the future.53 The Kampala Ministerial Declaration on Migration, Environment and Climate Change, signed by IGAD and East African Community members in Ju.