Malcom Elizabeth Adisheshiah Mid-Year Review of the Indian Economy NCAER

More broadly we can define it as the exercise of reading, through the lenses of a model, the flow of data releases in real time. [...] The term is a contraction for now and forecasting and has been used for a long-time in meteorology.”- Giannone, Reichlin and Small, 2008 Why Now-casting? Benefits of Now-casting Details Get up to Speed quickly Now-Casting identifies data series that matter in each economy, and shows quickly how key indicators - including GDP - are moving Read the News-flow Now-Casting provides a transparent, quant. [...] • The fall in credit growth began before demonetisation: Credit growth has recorded a sustained downward trend for the last six years •7 Segregating demand and supply issues • We segregate the decline in credit growth into supply side, demand side, lending rates and other exogenous factors. [...] • Our model suggests that of the 680bps decline in credit growth during this period, conversion of loans to UDAY bonds accounted for a 200bps decline, demand side factors led to 300bps decline and supply side factors including disintermediation were responsible for close to 250bps fall in credit growth. [...] • Thus, before the extensive penetration of digital platforms and change in spending pattern in the country, it is important that digital infrastructure exists in first place.