Report on Assessing security risks in the Balkans: a focus on Kosovo

IAI Director, Gianni Bonvicini, concurred as to the seriousness of the problems about to be discussed, and proceeded to describe the seminar in the context of the research activities of the IAI, as part of a wider project on Turkey, and the Southern Balkans which is being carried out by the Institute with the financial support of the German Marshall Fund and the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. [...] Among the possible solutions are: (1) the status quo, which is unacceptable, despite the fact that is supported by Milosevic; (2) independence is the preferred option of Rugova and Demaci, which is not supported by the international community, because of the potential danger of remaking the borders elsewhere in the Balkans; (3) an international protectorate is strongly opposed by the Serbs; (4) a. [...] Christopher Cviic, an Associate Fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs of the United Kingdom addressed the issue of the Serbian predicament in the Kosovo impasse, and the impact of the latest crisis on the wider context of the region. [...] However, the intensification of tensions in Kosovo, protests of Kosovo Serbs, as well as the presence of Seselj in the Serb government might slow the implementation of the agreement. [...] The lack of active engagement in Kosovo on the part of the international community probably consists less in the availability of early warning information, and more in a lack of international cooperation and failure to come to a common strategy, despite the clear danger of a violent spill-over.