This paper studies the effect of the 2018 drought on household consumption and poverty in Afghanistan, a semi-arid and conflict-affected country. The paper combines geolocated household data with remote-sensing weather data on precipitation, vegetation, and temperature. The findings show that drought-like conditions decreased monthly per capita consumption expenditures and hence increased poverty, with a highly nonlinear relationship between consumption and weather shocks. When forced to cut back, households reduced nonfood consumption to maintain their food consumption; only under severe stress did they reduce food consumption. Households that owned agricultural land were more resilient to the 2018 drought. Based on the historical distribution of weather shocks, estimates of vulnerability to poverty suggest that 62.5 percent of people have a one in four probability of falling into poverty due to weather shocks. Given that climate change will exacerbate the frequency and severity of future droughts, these findings highlight the importance of investments in resilience and shock-responsive social protection to supplement urgent humanitarian assistance.
Authors
- DOI
- https://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-10272
- Disclosure Date
- 2023/01/09
- Disclosure Status
- Disclosed
- Doc Name
- Droughts and Welfare in Afghanistan
- Originating Unit
- Off of Sr VP Dev Econ/Chief Econ (DECVP)
- Product Line
- Advisory Services & Analytics
- Published in
- United States of America
- Rel Proj ID
- AF-Afghanistan Poverty And Equity Program Fy 19-21 -- P168357
- Sector
- ICT Services,Central Government (Central Agencies),Banking Institutions,Social Protection
- Series Name
- Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 10272;
- TF No/Name
- TF0A8749-Evidence for Action,TF0A9789-Afghanistan: Returnee re-integration II,TF0B4687-GFF Afghanistan HFCS Data Collection Support Grant
- Unit Owning
- EFI-SAR-POV-Poverty and Equity (ESAPV),EFI-MNA-POV-Poverty and Equity (EMNPV)
- Version Type
- Final
- Volume No
- 1