UKRAINE - Looking ahead to 2023: outlook and risk analysis AIM
18 January 2023
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the resulting conflict have affected the economy of Ukraine after leading to logistical constraints, economic uncertainty, production facilities Key factors to watch in 2023 and infrastructure sustaining damage, and disruptions to the labour force and supply and demand mechanisms (WB 31/07/2022). [...] Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by Economic activity: the longer the conflict continues, the longer Ukraine has to focus a sizeable 15.1% in the first quarter of 2022 and 37.2% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the amount of its spending on defence activities rather than reconstruction and mitigating the same period in 2021 (SSSU accessed 16/11/2022). [...] While anxieties from air strikes, the uncertain outcome of the conflict, and shifting gender roles in support for Ukraine remains a part of US foreign policy, the rhetoric during the campaign the household and the economy because of the mobilisation of men, are another area where season suggests that stricter controls on the use of financial aid and increased transparency tensions may arise within. [...] The use of unconventional weapons will also result in more hardliners in the country, including the head of the Wagner armed group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, damage to civilian and critical infrastructure and lead to a further loss of livelihoods from have criticised the regime and advocated for an escalation of attacks against Ukraine (ISW contaminated areas, both within Ukraine and abroad, causing long. [...] In the event of shelling and damage to nuclear fuel and waste storage containers, the ZNPP’s proximity to the Dnipro River could result in the release of radioactive material into the Black Sea.