FUTURE CONFLICTS – LESSONS LEARNED FROM UKRAINE

Russian intelligence failures in the initial period of the war, regarding both Ukrainian capabilities and attitudes, as well as the expected level of Western resistance has spurred a series of tactical and operational failures at the onset of the invasion. [...] The war in Ukraine, therefore, 7 highlights the perils of the logic of nuclear-era limited war, should there be an escalation in the number of actors engaged in the war (e.g., Russian attacks on the Baltic states, Poland, Romania, and other NATO countries), an expansion in war aims (e.g., calls for regime change in Russia), or an expansion in the ways and means of warfare (e.g., increased air atta. [...] Nonetheless, there are several critical aspects of the warfare that the on-going conflict has highlighted, including the critical role of Russian intelligence failures at the beginning of the war; the importance of Western counter-measures targeting the Russian “information confrontation”; the failure of the Russian concept of mobile attack echelons with airborne troops deployed with helicopters;. [...] Finally, the war has highlighted the importance of alliances and defensive networks and the need to ensure sufficient resources (particularly defence spending) to attain necessary levels of readiness and close the gaps between strategies, policies, and readiness. [...] The MTP research projects aim to provide an on-going assessment of the relative strengths and weaknesses of competitors and suggest sources of competitive advantage such as the maturation and spread of asymmetric anti- access/area-denial capabilities, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and disruption, future warfighting strategies and concepts, and their strategic implications for Ea.