30 January 2023 - A New Russian Offensive for 2023?

20.500.12592/f336p7

30 January 2023 - A New Russian Offensive for 2023?

30 Jan 2023

John Bruni Founder & CEO SAGE International Host of the STRATEGIKON & The Focus Podcasts S atellite imagery seems to be confirming that the Russian Army, flush with its partial success around the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, capturing the town of Soledar, is planning a much larger military offensive against the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) along the Svatove-Kreminna line in Luhansk. [...] If, on the other hand, the gamble of a major Russian military offensive fails to crack the Ukrainian egg by the northern spring, the Ukrainians will have a chance to redouble its own manpower mobilisation and training regime, possibly preparing a major counter-offensive against Russian-occupied Ukraine by the late northern spring/early northern summer, avoiding fighting during the Rasputitsa Seaso. [...] And it’s not the tanks alone that may change the nature of the war decisively in Ukraine’s favour, but the network-centric characteristics built into these vehicles that the AFU’s generous supplies of former Soviet and current-spec Russian tanks and armoured vehicles lack. [...] The city of Kherson, liberated from Russian forces last November, has recently come under artillery and missile attack by Russian forces on the other side of the Dnipro River.4 This could be a taste of the anticipated 2023 Russian offensive, or a ruse designed to keep Ukraine off- guard while the Russians dig-in to extensive defensive fortifications. [...] It has a limited time to achieve this before new Western military capabilities find their way into Ukrainian Army ranks, and when that happens, we cannot dismiss the idea of the beginning of a series of Ukrainian victories toward the end of 2023 and with all of the negative consequences this will have for the current Russian leadership.
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