LEADING GDP INDICATOR FORECAST FOR GEORGIA – JANUARY 2023 - We may never see a year like this again: Georgia’s annual growth for 2022 surpasses 10%, amidst regional and global crisis

In the same time period, time deposits increased by 0.9% in monthly terms, and demand deposits and currency in circulation increased by 1.6% and 5.4% respectively compared to the previous month. [...] The slowdown of the annual growth of foreign currency deposits is partially driven by the appreciation of the national currency. [...] Moreover, the GEL/EUR, GEL/USD, and GEL/TRY real exchange rate appreciated (except GEL/RUB, which depreciated by 4.9%) compared to the same month of the previous year by 29.4%, 18.6%, and 22.6% respectively. [...] Therefore, a global increase in the price of metal will likely cause improvement to the Georgian economy, whereas an increase in the price of agricultural products will be damaging. [...] On the balance, adding the PMETA and PRAWM indicators to the model thus decrease the growth forecast.