A Cautious Partnership: Prospects for Iranian-Russian Relations in the Wake of the Ukraine War

For instance, any potential understanding between Russia and the West regarding Ukraine or between Iran and the West concerning the nuclear program will undermine the development of the partnership between Moscow and Tehran as each party will use its relationship with the other as a bargaining chip with the West, just like they both did during previous periods of rapprochement with Western countri. [...] Introduction ■ In the absence of a sweeping victory of the Russian army in Ukraine and the transformation of the conflict into a war of attrition, Tehran began supplying Moscow with drones. [...] These concerns are cemented by events such as the attack on 26 October 2022, on the pilgrims of the “Shah Chirag” shrine in the city of Shiraz, in the Fars Governorate, which resulted in the killing of 14 people and the wounding of dozens, in addition to the ongoing attacks against the Hazara Shiite communities in Afghanistan. [...] Fourth: The position on the Arab Spring Revolutions and the Syrian Revolution ■ Russia and Iran have similar positions regarding the Arab Spring Revolutions, which they both consider as Western conspiracies aimed at reshaping the region and weakening their influence by expelling Moscow from the eastern Mediterranean and Iran from the Levant. [...] ■ Notwithstanding the foregoing, any potential understanding between Russia and the West regarding Ukraine or between Iran and the West concerning the nuclear program will undermine the development of the partnership between Moscow and Tehran as each party will use its relationship with the other as a bargaining chip with the West, just like they both did during previous periods of rapprochement w.