February 2023 Hirshabelle’s political settlement - Opportunities for meaningful and inclusive political processes

Tensions were further aggravated by the election of Ali Abdullahi Hussein ‘Guudlaawe’ of the Abgal clan to the state presidency in November 2020, with Jowhar, the regional capital of Middle Shabelle, remaining the state capital. [...] The future impact of the group on any political settlement, however, hinges on the outcome of current military campaigns in the state, which have already led to the government re-capturing significant amounts of territory. [...] 4 The role of the FGS in political dynamics: Many of the settlement challenges confronting Hirshabelle have their roots in how the FGS managed the formation process, prioritizing implementation of the 2016–2017 indirect election over a consensus-based process. [...] Somali Dialogue Platform Hirshabelle’s political settlement 5 Transforming the fundamentals of the political settlement Revitalizing the political settlement in Hirshabelle requires returning to the state formation process and creating space for mutual collaboration between groups—only then can the core power-sharing issues that continue to disrupt state-building efforts be addressed. [...] This could be enabled by the conclusion of the current campaigns against al-Shabaab and the consolidation of peace and stability once the military phase winds down.