New Budget, same problems : - Spring Budget preview

@resfoundation 2 Summary: the policy choices in three key areas Cost of living support: • Delaying the increase in the Energy Price Guarantee to £3,000 is likely and would cost a one-off £3bn. [...] @resfoundation 5 GDP fall for 2023 likely to be less than half that feared Calendar-year forecasts for real GDP growth in 2023, by date of forecast: UK In November, OBR forecast GDP to fall by 1.3% this year… …but following those huge falls in energy prices, this is likely to be nearer 0.5% - in line with the Bank of England (BoE). [...] @resfoundation 10 Policy is supporting poorer, and taxing richer, households… Average impact of tax changes taking effect in April 2023 and cost of living support in 2023-24 by income vigintile, in 2023-24 prices: UK Tax rises coming into effect in April mean a £650 hit to a typical household’s income and a £1,500 hit for the richest fifth of households. [...] Notes: All measures are potential participation rate - that is, the long-run sustainable level of the participation rate - except for the Bank of England which is a forecast for the actual participation rate. [...] @resfoundation 34 Summary: the policy choices in three key areas Cost of living support: • Delaying the increase in the Energy Price Guarantee to £3,000 is likely and would cost a one off £3bn.