Beyond the First Battle: Winning the Long War Over Taiwan

Editor's Note: This article expands upon ideas discussed in Lonnie Henley’s recent research report, Beyond the First Battle: Overcoming a Protracted Blockade of Taiwan . To read that report, please visit the website for the U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute. Much has been written on whether war with China is likely and whether Beijing has a timeline for invading Taiwan. When it comes to what such a war would look like, however, the focus is almost exclusively on the early days or weeks of the conflict, defeating a Chinese attempt to land on Taiwan and countering Chinese threats to American forces. Virtually no one looks past those first weeks, at what happens after the United States repels the landing. The country is in severe danger of winning the first battle only to lose the war.