The Global Challenges Foundation (GCF) has raised the following questions for Earth4All
to answer:
1. To what extent can humans exploit Earth’s natural resources without threatening the
sustainability of Earth’s biosphere?
2. To what extent can humans increase natural resources (defined in question 1) through
better management (for example circular economy practices), anticipated technological
development and other changes in consumption and production, without lowering material
standards of living?
3. How many people could Earth’s biosphere support (as defined in question 1), with increased
utility value, if everybody were living on the minimum level stated in the United Nations
Universal Declaration of Human Rights article 25.1?
4. How many people could live sustainably on Earth – within planetary boundaries and
accounting for increased average life expectancy – if the average standard of living
exceeded the minimum level by 10, 20 or 30% respectively?
5. If any or several of the answers to the questions above is less than the current population,
the question becomes: What are the most appropriate and important measures to reach a
long-term sustainable global population, according to the best available scientific evidence?
In this report we summarise the results of our research on population. We provide estimates
based on scientific evidence about quantifiable policy measures that can and will shape the
future population trajectory, per main region in the world, into a long-term sustainable global
population. We use these simulations to provide answers to all the questions raised by the GCF.
In general, our estimates for future population trends are substantially lower than UN mid and
high projections, leading to a potentially more optimistic outlook on the relationship between
population and sustainability. However, a quicker demographic transition brings its own
challenges, particularly of inequality and ageing.
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