Estimating the Effects of Safe Streets Baltimore on Gun Violence 2007-2022

Safe Streets Baltimore (Safe Streets) is a community violence intervention (CVI) program designed to reduce gun violence in neighborhoods with high levels of gun violence. Frontline workers are recruited for their ability to connect with individuals at highest risk for involvement in gun violence and mediate disputes, promote nonviolent norms for settling disputes, and connect program participants to services. Baltimore has fully implemented the program in 11 neighborhoods between 2007 and 2021. Six of these sites have been fully operational for less than three years and have not been previously evaluated. Prior evaluations of Safe Streets have shown mixed results across the sites and over time. To estimate program efects, we analyzed variation in neighborhood-level monthly counts of homicides and nonfatal shootings for the period January 1, 2003 through July 31, 2022. The primary analyses were augmented synthetic control models for each site. During the first four years of program implementation across the five longer-running sites, Safe Streets was associated with a statistically significant average reduction in homicides of 32%. Over the entire study period among these longer-running sites, homicides were 22% lower than forecasted if the program had not been implemented. A rigorous analysis of trends in gun violence provides evidence that Safe Streets has yielded important reductions in homicides and nonfatal shootings in these neighborhoods. Given the extraordinarily high cost of gun violence, we estimate $7.2 to $19.2 in economic benefts for every $1 invested in Safe Streets.