Safe Streets Baltimore (Safe Streets) is a community violence intervention (CVI) program designed
to reduce gun violence in neighborhoods with high levels of gun violence. Frontline workers are
recruited for their ability to connect with individuals at highest risk for involvement in gun violence
and mediate disputes, promote nonviolent norms for settling disputes, and connect program
participants to services. Baltimore has fully implemented the program in 11 neighborhoods between
2007 and 2021. Six of these sites have been fully operational for less than three years and have not
been previously evaluated. Prior evaluations of Safe Streets have shown mixed results across the
sites and over time. To estimate program efects, we analyzed variation in neighborhood-level monthly counts of
homicides and nonfatal shootings for the period January 1, 2003 through July 31, 2022. The
primary analyses were augmented synthetic control models for each site. During the first four years of program implementation across the five longer-running sites, Safe
Streets was associated with a statistically significant average reduction in homicides of 32%. Over
the entire study period among these longer-running sites, homicides were 22% lower than
forecasted if the program had not been implemented. A rigorous analysis of trends in gun violence provides evidence
that Safe Streets has yielded important reductions in homicides and nonfatal shootings in these
neighborhoods. Given the extraordinarily high cost of gun violence, we estimate $7.2 to $19.2 in
economic benefts for every $1 invested in Safe Streets.
Authors
- Published in
- United States of America
