Devolved tax and spending forecasts - March 2023

This contrasts with the impact of the Budget on UK-wide and Scottish receipts, where the direct costs outweigh the indirect benefits by the end of the forecast period. [...] In 2022-23 and 2023-24, these are specific to Scotland and Wales in terms of house prices, while all other years and variables are the same as the UK-wide forecasts published in our Economic and fiscal outlook.2 3.5 House prices have been stronger in outturn in Wales than in the UK as a whole in the first half of 2022-23 but with signs of this strength moderating. [...] This also helps to drive a year-on-year rise in the forecast in 2024-25, the only rise in receipts in recent years other than the rebound in 2021-22 from the pandemic-driven drop the preceding year. [...] This explains the majority of the sharp fall in Scottish receipts from £83 million in 2024-25 to just £16 million in 2026-27, and explains the sharper fall in Scottish landfill receipts relative to the rest of the UK. [...] 1 The agreement between the Scottish Government and the United Kingdom Government on the Scottish Government’s fiscal framework, February 2016, and The agreement between the Welsh Government and the United Kingdom Government on the Welsh Government’s fiscal framework, December 2016.