COVID-19 and the Remaking of U.S. Immigration Policy? Empirically Evaluating the Myth

When combining monthly data from the CDC on the prevalence of the flu from 2000 to present—a 20-year period that includes the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 and the early months of the global COVID-19 pandemic—with a number of immi- gration indicators, the data show that neither the monthly total number of persons entering the U. [...] Data on the monthly total number of persons requesting asylum, defined as the monthly total number of USCIS credible fear case receipts, as well as the monthly total number of asylum seekers who establish credible fear, defined as the monthly total number of credible fear interviews where fear is established, come from U. [...] through southern border ports of entry, the monthly total number of persons requesting asylum, and the monthly total number of asylum seekers who establish credible fear, as well as lagged (one quarter) values of the quarterly total number of USCIS approvals by all visa application types; es- timating additional models that de-trend the seasonality of the flu by removing the spring (April, May, an. [...] Importantly, the anal- ysis controls for the month of the year, which is needed to take into account the seasonality of the flu, as well as the specific year in the analysis, which is needed to take into account how the prevalence of the flu varies by year (e.g., the 2009 H1N1 pandemic). [...] through southern border ports of entry does not add to the explanatory power of the baseline model (p = .614); an F-test comparing Model 3 to Model 1 shows that the natural log of the monthly total number of persons requesting asylum does not add to the explanatory power of the baseline model (p = .476); and an F-test comparing Model 4 to Model 1 shows that the natural log of the monthly total num.