cover image: Combining Human Expertise with Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology

20.500.12592/9n56rr

Combining Human Expertise with Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology

6 Jul 2023

While Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms have achieved performance levels comparable to human experts on various predictive tasks, human experts can still access valuable contextual information not yet incorporated into AI predictions. Humans assisted by AI predictions could outperform both human-alone or AI-alone. We conduct an experiment with professional radiologists that varies the availability of AI assistance and contextual information to study the effectiveness of human-AI collaboration and to investigate how to optimize it. Our findings reveal that (i) providing AI predictions does not uniformly increase diagnostic quality, and (ii) providing contextual information does increase quality. Radiologists do not fully capitalize on the potential gains from AI assistance because of large deviations from the benchmark Bayesian model with correct belief updating. The observed errors in belief updating can be explained by radiologists’ partially underweighting the AI’s information relative to their own and not accounting for the correlation between their own information and AI predictions. In light of these biases, we design a collaborative system between radiologists and AI. Our results demonstrate that, unless the documented mistakes can be corrected, the optimal solution involves assigning cases either to humans or to AI, but rarely to a human assisted by AI.
econometrics experimental design industrial organization microeconomics estimation methods economics of information productivity, innovation, and entrepreneurship market structure and distribution economics of health

Authors

Nikhil Agarwal, Alex Moehring, Pranav Rajpurkar, Tobias Salz

Acknowledgements & Disclosure
The project benefitted from collaboration with several radiologists, including Drs. Matthew Lungren, Curtis Langlotz, and Anuj Pareek of Stanford, Drs. Etan Dayan and Adam Jacobi of Mt. Sinai Hospital, Steven Truong of VinBrain and several radiologists at VINMEC, and teleradiologists at USARAD, Vesta Teleradiology, and Advanced Telemed. We thank Daron Acemoglu, David Autor, David Chan, Glenn Ellison, Amy Finkelstein, Drew Fudenberg, Paul Joskow, Whitney Newey, Pietro Ortoleva, Paul Oyer, Ariel Pakes, Alex Rees-Jones, Frank Schilbach, Chad Syverson, and Alex Wolitzky for helpful conversations, comments and suggestions. Oishi Banerjee, Andrew Komo, Manasi Kutwal, Angelo Marino and Jett Pettus provided invaluable research assistance. The authors acknowledge support from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (2022-17182), JPAL Healthcare Delivery Initiative, and MIT SHASS. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
DOI
https://doi.org/10.3386/w31422
Published in
United States of America

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