Epidemic and intervention modelling– a scientific rationale for policy decisions? Lessons from the 2009 influenza pandemic

This paper describes the data analysis and mathematical modelling undertaken during and following the 2009 influenza pandemic, especially to inform public health planning and decision-making. [...] This network and other modelling groups worked with policy-makers to characterize the dynamics and impact of the pandemic and assess the effectiveness of interventions in different settings. [...] Relevant changes Modellers provided a quantitative framework for analysing surveillance data and for understanding the dynamics of the epidemic and the impact of interventions. [...] Background Pre-pandemic planning Mathematical models have been used by ministries of health Outbreak analysis and mathematical modelling have played and governments to inform influenza pandemic planning in an important role in the planning of the public health many developed countries. [...] Such and mathematical models integrate and synthesize epi- information makes it possible to determine the medical and demiological, clinical, virologic, genetic and sociodemo- non-medical interventions required, the feasibility of contain- graphic data to gain quantitative insights into patterns of ment and the optimal size of the medication stockpile and best disease transmission.1 use of pharmac