HIV and AIDS: where is the epidemic going?

The process is based on a then calculates the total number of infections from strong relationship between surveillance, estimation, the start of the epidemic, which is necessary to pro- forecasting and evaluation of trends, both in devel- duce the current level of HIV prevalence. [...] In sub-Saharan Africa the male to female ratio tions and current and future AIDS cases in the short is close to 1:1, whereas a steady increase in female term, WHO uses a model based upon the natural AIDS cases is observed in the rest of the world.a The history of HIV and a theoretical gamma-shaped rising infection rates in women are accompanied by a epidemic curve (6). [...] Both the number and the in cases of tuberculosis has been reported in parallel rate of AIDS cases per population are highest in with the AIDS epidemic in many countries, particu- Brazil, which had over 70000 reported cases as of larly in Africa (10). [...] The reasons for the disparities in 0-0 the spread of the epidemic across the subcontinent 0- r-0 need to be explored by examining in a standardized v way the sexual mixing patterns in various parts of the world. [...] Data from the national AIDS programme lion, the epidemic is now well established; the results indicate that HIV prevalence among ANC attenders of the first round of sentinel surveillance in 1994 is now around 8% in the northern part of the coun- among ANC attenders in Bombay indicated a preva- try, while the median prevalence nationwide was lence of 2.5% (1).