Pakistan’s Economic Outlook and

The impact of the While the causes of the revenue shortfall will be discussed in the following sub- shortfall was sections, it is noteworthy that the impact of the shortfall was greater on the federal greater on the government than on provincial governments (Table 2.1). [...] Despite the government’s claims of achieving the tax targets, the federal budget documents reveal a shortfall of Rs 270 billion in the revised 16 Pakistan’s Economic Outlook and the Federal Budget 2023-24 estimates of FBR tax revenues against the target of Rs 7.47 trillion for 2022-23. [...] By analyzing the historical data, the estimation provides insights into the responsiveness of tax revenues to changes in the tax base (buoyancy) and the autonomous growth in tax revenues unrelated to changes in the tax base. [...] Finally, the feasibility of the tax targets is evaluated by comparing the autonomous growth rate derived from the analysis with the projected rates of the FBR. [...] On the other hand, the rest of the buoyancy estimates are less than 1, indicating that the growth in tax revenues is lower than the growth in the corresponding tax bases.