Briefing Note: Seasonality in the GDP Data - 1995 to 2013 2014 to second quarter 2019

Briefing Note: Seasonality in the GDP Data According to official Statistics South Africa GDP data, even after adjusting the data to remove seasonal variations, the economy contracted in the first quarter of 2019 in five of the six years from 2014 to 2019. [...] In contrast, the economy reportedly shrank just twice in the second quarter, once in the third quarter, and not at all in the fourth. [...] From the first quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2019, the economy reportedly shrank 0.1% in the first quarter; then grew by 0.3% in the second quarter; 0.4% in the third; and 0.5% in the fourth. [...] Excel spreadsheet (previous format) downloaded from www.statssa.gov.za in June 2019 THE REAL ECONOMY BULLETIN 1 [Grab your reader’s attention with a great quote from the document or use this space to The following graph compares the reported economic contractions by quarter from 1995 to 2013 and from 2014 to the second quarter of 2019. [...] Share of quarters reporting a decline in GDP, by quarter, 1995 to 2013 and 2014 to second quarter 2019 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% first second third fourth first second third fourth quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter 1994 to 2014 2014 to second quarter 2019 Source: StatsSA GDP quarterly figures.