NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker - Large Fall in GDP in July May Herald a Quarterly Decline
13 September 2023
It seems that, despite the forthcoming data revisions in the 2023 Blue Book, the low but stable growth profile for the United Kingdom remains the same.” Paula Bejarano Carbo Associate Economist, NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker September 2 3 - 2 - Main points • Monthly GDP fell by 0.5 per cent in July following growth of 0.5 per cent in June. [...] We now forecast GDP to contract by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2023, remaining broadly consistent with the longer-term trend of low, but stable, economic growth in the United Kingdom. [...] Figure 4 – UK GDP growth (3 months on previous 3 months, per cent) Figure 5 shows a heat map of the data surprises across sectors in the monthly data, relative to last month’s GDP Tracker, highlighting the sectors where the surprises are large relative to the volatility of the output data. [...] Our first estimate of growth for any particular quarter starts in the first month of that quarter and is then updated each month until the first official release in the second month of the following quarter. [...] To check how our methodology would work in real time we went back to late 2016 to produce judgement-free forecasts of GDP growth in future months based on the monthly data series available for the components in November 2016 (this was the earliest vintage then available on the ONS website) and in each subsequent three months.