Zika virus infection estimates, Mexico

To convert the absolute In settings where case detection, diagnosis and report- numbers of cases to the number of confirmed cases per 100 000 ing follow standardized surveillance protocols, the regular pregnancy-months, we estimated the number of pregnancy- recording of the numbers of confirmed cases may help to months during the study period. [...] For this, we first calculated identify the emergence of an epidemic, sketch the epidemic the relevant annual number of live births by multiplying the curve, characterize the spatiotemporal trends in dispersion, numbers of Mexican women aged 15–49 years at the start of recognize the end of transmission and monitor the effect of any the study period, which were projected from the relevant data contr [...] However, to estimate the magnitude of an recorded in the 2010 national census and stratified in five-year epidemic, we need to know not just the number of confirmed age intervals,18 by their corresponding age-specific fecundity cases but also the number of suspected cases, the proportion rates.19 Next, to estimate the corresponding annual number of of the suspected cases that are tested and the me [...] We also compared the incidence of tively.20,21 To account for the monthly variation in birth rates, we congenital microcephaly, as reported, routinely, in the national distributed our estimation of the annual number of pregnancies birth-certificate database, over two periods: before and after according to the monthly distribution of births in the national Zika virus was confirmed to be circulating [...] When 2200 m above sea level.23 We estimated we multiplied the estimated cumulative altitudes of residence from the altitudes where Yt represents the number of incidence of symptomatic infection recorded, for each human settlement in cases of microcephaly in the period t, among pregnant women by the total Mexico, in the 2010 national census.24 B0 represents the baseline incidence of population livi