Challenges, opportunities and trends to
watch in six sectors. This report looks at the impact that all these developments will have on six global industries. We also
offer some industry-specific predictions for 2024.
• In the automotive sector, demand for EVs will continue to be the only bright spot in a very subdued
year. We expect EV sales to rise by 21% to 14.9m units—more than five times their pre-pandemic
level—while sales of passenger cars (including EVs) and commercial vehicles will rise by just 3%
and 1% respectively. China will account for more than half of global EV sales and a similar share of
exports, prompting an escalation in trade tensions.
• For consumer goods and retailing, we expect global retail sales to expand by 6.7% in US-dollar
terms and by 2% in real terms as inflation eases. Real-world retailers are likely to fare better than
online businesses, aided by bargain-hunters and another year of improvement in international
tourism arrivals.
• Energy consumption will accelerate to 1.8% in 2024, driven largely by demand from Asia. Still-high
prices for fossil fuels will not prevent global demand reaching new records. Demand for renewable
energy will rise by 11%, despite unresolved supply-chain issues, higher financial costs and low
auction prices.
• In the financial services sector, banks and fixed-income funds will continue to benefit from high
interest rates and wider margins, but investors in property will face more turbulence, particularly in
China. Property insurers will step back from covering areas subject to weather-related risks such as
tropical storms, rainfall, floods and wildfires.
• Healthcare spending will rise in real US-dollar terms following two years of decline. Countries
such as China and Egypt will work on expanding access to care. However, resources will remain
constrained as governments try to bring down fiscal deficits and public debt levels while heading
off healthcare strikes. Pharmaceutical companies will face new regulations over manufacturing
standards in India and market entry requirements in the EU.
Authors
- Published in
- United Kingdom