Industry Outlook 2024

Challenges, opportunities and trends to watch in six sectors. This report looks at the impact that all these developments will have on six global industries. We also offer some industry-specific predictions for 2024. • In the automotive sector, demand for EVs will continue to be the only bright spot in a very subdued year. We expect EV sales to rise by 21% to 14.9m units—more than five times their pre-pandemic level—while sales of passenger cars (including EVs) and commercial vehicles will rise by just 3% and 1% respectively. China will account for more than half of global EV sales and a similar share of exports, prompting an escalation in trade tensions. • For consumer goods and retailing, we expect global retail sales to expand by 6.7% in US-dollar terms and by 2% in real terms as inflation eases. Real-world retailers are likely to fare better than online businesses, aided by bargain-hunters and another year of improvement in international tourism arrivals. • Energy consumption will accelerate to 1.8% in 2024, driven largely by demand from Asia. Still-high prices for fossil fuels will not prevent global demand reaching new records. Demand for renewable energy will rise by 11%, despite unresolved supply-chain issues, higher financial costs and low auction prices. • In the financial services sector, banks and fixed-income funds will continue to benefit from high interest rates and wider margins, but investors in property will face more turbulence, particularly in China. Property insurers will step back from covering areas subject to weather-related risks such as tropical storms, rainfall, floods and wildfires. • Healthcare spending will rise in real US-dollar terms following two years of decline. Countries such as China and Egypt will work on expanding access to care. However, resources will remain constrained as governments try to bring down fiscal deficits and public debt levels while heading off healthcare strikes. Pharmaceutical companies will face new regulations over manufacturing standards in India and market entry requirements in the EU.