NABARD Research Study No. 40

The changing scenario of the consumption and production pattern of foodgrains and other major commodities coupled with the rising population and changing tastes and preferences are bound to influence the demand and supply prospects of food commodities in India. [...] Chand (2007) provides the demand projection for foodgrains (rice, wheat, coarse cereals and pulses) for the years 2011-12 and 2020-21 using the per capita demand projection as a function of per capita consumption in the base year (2004-05), income elasticity, the growth rate in per capita income during the period 1993-94 to 2004-05 and rate of change in demand due to changes in tastes and preferen. [...] The Report of the Working Group on Foodgrains (2011) forecasted the demand and supply th projections of the agricultural commodities for the 12 Five Year Plan (FYP) as well as th validated the ex-ante demand and supply projection of foodgrains for the 9 (1997-98 to th th 2001-02), 10 (2002-03 to 2006-07) and 11 (2007-08 to 2011-12) FYPs. [...] Methodology for forecasting and validating demand and supply of agricultural commodities The review of literature has examined clearly the various methodologies adopted in the different studies and highlighted what are the key factors for the divergence in the forecasted estimates between these studies. [...] The future forecast for demand is based on the growth rate of population and the base year absorption after controlling for the changes in per capita income and the elasticity of consumption/expenditure of agricultural commodities.