Futures of the Western Balkans 2043 - Development Foresight Scenarios Strategic Planning EU Integration Political Stability Economic Growth Green Transition Social Cohesion
23 November 2023
process that was enhanced by massive labor short- ages in the again booming economies of the EU, the By 2040, the diaspora from the Western Balkans is United States and other economic powerhouses of twice as large as the population in the region – with the Global North. [...] Never waste a good crisis! It all started with COVID-19, the Russian intervention in Ukraine and With new political elites at the helm in many of the the tightening conflict between China, the United Western Balkan countries, governments in the region States and the re-invented “West”, the Western Bal- set up recruitment and remigration programs to kans predominantly siding with its liberal-democr. [...] And under the auspices of the Berlin Process, the EU and the six The main consequences of accelerated climate WB leaders developed a regional energy and cli- change in the region are: mate plan for the region (“Western Balkans Cli- • Higher frequency and longer duration of heat mate Partnership”). [...] Even though the EU provided massive financial sup- port to enhance the decarbonization of energy sec- tors in WB countries through the Economic and In- vestment Plan (EIP), the lack of carrot and sticks (EU 18 Generated with Midjourney Green New Deal – Mission Possible and the EU on one side and China and Russia on the other led to the relocation of industries onto Europe- It is true: Until the mi. [...] • Given the state-capture of elites and their cro- nies in the WB and a lack of elite consensus re- 26 4.4 E U Accession – in Syria, the rise of the Islamic State (IS), Islamist Gridlock or Gearing up? terrorism in Europe and the migration crisis (2015 – 2016), Brexit (2016), Trumpism in the Since the accession process for the Western Balkan United States (2017 – 2020), and now Russia’s ag- countr.