MacroPolo Econ
Paulson Institute
Original insights and ideas on the key trends and challenges shaping our world: deglobalization, deleveraging, decarbonization, and demographics. All these challenges are present in China, which is our main focus, but they are not exclusive to it. These trends afflict developing and advanced economies alike, so we occasionally take on a wider aperture to compare and contrast across countries/regions. We examine these trends through the prism of economics, energy, technology, and politics, all of which intersect and influence outcomes.
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Paulson Institute · 19 April 2024 English
In our 1H Macro Outlook, we highlighted property as a key downside risk for growth in 2024. While property sales were already slowing down at the end of 2023, the …
Paulson Institute · 7 February 2024 English
In this special feature, we are including our 1H2024 Outlook. The PDF report can be downloaded here and will also go live on our website tomorrow. Slower Growth to Drag …
Paulson Institute · 19 October 2023 English
By Damien Ma and Houze Song Like many, we have been grappling with what to make of the Chinese economy’s prospects. It is evident that serious risks have built up, …
Paulson Institute · 31 July 2023 English
Download 3Q2023 Outlook Key Takeaways: Quarterly growth will likely bottom out at ~4%, as no “big bang” stimulus is forthcoming. Stimulus measures will take the form of modest fiscal spending …
Paulson Institute · 25 May 2023 English
Ever since the global financial crisis, prognostications of the demise of the US dollar have come and gone. Now that the idea of a “common BRIC currency” has been floated …
Paulson Institute · 20 March 2023 English
While the fallout from the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) crisis won’t have a direct impact on China, it will affect how Beijing manages risk among its own regional banks. In …
Paulson Institute · 21 February 2023 English
As our “China’s Debt Hangover” has shown, China will need to reckon with its local debt problem sooner rather than later. Since 2022, the property sector bust and the pandemic …
Paulson Institute · 30 January 2023 English
In this special feature, we are including our 1Q2023 Outlook. Excerpts of the takeaways and introduction are below; the full report can be accessed here. Post-Covid Rebound Dramatic but Short …
Paulson Institute · 12 December 2022 English
With China’s upcoming Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), markets will be looking for any pro-growth signals after a year of turbulence. But the most consequential action for growth has already …
Paulson Institute · 29 November 2022 English
For those looking for a bright spot in the Chinese economy, trade is the most obvious. China is on its way to a record trade surplus that is expected to …