Brexit Counterfactuals
Toby Green
This List compiles major counterfactual estimates of the impact of Brexit on the UK economy. Each comes from a credible source, each is independent, and each uses a different modelling or calculating technique. If anyone knows of other credible counterfactuals - whatever their conclusion - please let us know so we can add to this List.
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Cambridge Econometrics (United Kingdom) · 15 January 2024 English
This study was commissioned by the Greater London Authority (GLA) as a follow-up to Cambridge Econometrics’ (CE) 2018 ‘Preparing for Brexit’ study. It uses CE’s macro-sector model E3ME to model …
NIESR: National Institute of Economic and Social Research · 7 November 2023 English
A quarterly forecast on the economic outlook for the world economies from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. The document examines the challenges relating to global growth, global …
OBR: Office for Budget Responsibility · 17 April 2023 English
Since the announcement of the EU referendum the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has been producing analysis and writing about the potential effects of Brexit on the UK economy and …
CER: Centre for European Reform · 21 December 2022
Since 2018, the CER has published estimates of the impact of Brexit on the UK’s economy. In this insight, I update these estimates with data until June 2022, and discuss …
Bloomberg · 31 January 2023
From business investment to the ability to hire workers, Brexit is costing the £100 billion ($120 billion) a year in lost output, according to Bloomberg Economics. This video explains.