Business Cycles

This report, developed by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), presents the fifth phase of the NGFS climate scenarios, offering updated projections for central banks and supervisors to …

for compound risks Combine climate risk with business cycles Review the scenario set for the 2026 update … for compound risks Combine climate risk with business cycles …

Growth gathered momentum in 2023 on the back of recovering external demand, but exchange rate depreciation continues and inflation remains persistently high. Labor and FX shortages are intensifying. Public debt …

available, limiting the ability to analyze business cycles in a comprehensive and timely manner. • …

Conventional empirical models of monetary policy transmission in emerging market economies produce puzzling results: monetary tightening often leads to an increase in prices (the price puzzle) and depreciation of the …

The neo-Fisher effect and the central bank information (CBI) effect produce similar outcomes: under both, a monetary tightening triggers an increase in inflation and an expansion in real activity. Separate …

This paper analyzes the effects of climate change on budgetary sustainability and inequality.

Gourio, Francois. 2012. Disaster Risk and Business Cycles. American Economic Review 102 (6): 2734–2766 …

Monetary and fiscal policies require coordination to achieve desired macroeconomic outcomes. The literature since Leeper (1991) has focused on two regimes: monetary dominance and fiscal dominance. In both cases, one …

countries. One obvious explanation is that business cycles are correlated across countries, and monetary …

This paper provides an extensive review of the literatures on product and labor market regulations and their effects on labor market outcomes. It uncovers the interdependence of these two types …

promotes economic dynamism and resilience to business cycles. Furthermore, PMR that promote market competition … analyzing how pro-competitive PMR matter across business cycles. The OECD (2018b) uses the term dynamic efficiency … resilience of firms against recessions and business cycles could also benefit the labor force as unemployment …

The paper also investigates two factors contributing to the deterioration of the CA deficit: the high proportion of imported content in Greek exports and the export specialization of Greek production. …

research focuses on international macroeconomics, business cycles, and tourism, with particular emphasis on the …

than a substantial reduction in the frictions on intertemporal trade or greater asymmetries in business cycles. Beyond explaining changes in the distribution of gross and net trade, the decline in intratemporal …

intertemporal trade or greater asymmetries in business cycles. Beyond explaining changes in the distribution … 1barriers, financial frictions, or asymmetric business cycles across countries. Out of these three, a few … shocks generating business cycles, we develop a general equilibrium model of business cycles, international … interpret the international time series on business cycles and trade through an 18 country variation of … economic activity. To capture these changes in business cycles requires us to take a second order approximation …

In HANK models, fiscal deficits drive aggregate demand and thus inflation because households are non-Ricardian; in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL), they instead do so via equilibrium …