October 7 Has Not Changed the Middle East

Hamas’ pogrom against Israel on 7 October has not changed the Middle East, nor its fundamental political dynamics. Neither has Israel’s devastating military retaliation in Gaza. Neither has the explosion of anger worldwide.This apparently is a counter‐​intuitive point for those who assume events of such deafening noise must contain a signal. Observers claim an historic inflection point is at hand. Allegedly, the upheaval leaves ententes and settlements between Israel and its former adversaries in tatters. The outrage of everyone from Palestinians to the governments of the Middle East, we hear, will change the rules, prevent normalisation and wreck America’s plans. Yet despite declarations to the contrary, the evidence of the first fifty days suggests an undercurrent of continuity beneath the tumult. A disaster can be lethal without being transformative.