The constitution to be put to the public vote provides for one option only: a “unitary decentralized” state that differs little from Chad’s 1996 constitution.6 There is little doubt that the referendum will result in the new constitution being adopted; the only question is how large the turnout will be – several opposition parties have already announced they are boycotting the referendum. [...] That leaves Chad as the last country in the region to host French troops: the headquarters of France’s military operation in the Sahel had been based there since 2014.9 French deployment in Chad is vital for Paris’s ability to project both military power in a conflict-ridden region and the image of a leading actor on the continent at a time of intense soul-searching regarding its Africa policy.10. [...] Many could be traced to the military apron of Abu Dhabi airport.19 Previously, the companies involved had used several of the same aircraft to send UAE military assistance to Khalifa Haftar during the 2019–20 Libyan civil war and to Ethiopia during the Tigray war in 2021.20 The UAE has claimed that the flights are delivering humanitarian aid, including for a newly established Emirati field hospita. [...] In addition, Chad has increasingly looked to the UAE (and Israel) for weapons procurement.29 It remains unclear whether some of the military equipment delivered by the UAE in its effort to back the RSF could also be going towards strengthening the Chadian army. [...] Western governments and the UN have noticeably softened their stance towards Chad’s transition even as the political space in the country has continued to shrink.30 The same applies to the European Union and its members.
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