23_11_21_Countering Russia’s Hybrid Threats in the Arctic[15]_ES_EK

First and foremost, messaging by Russia and its proxies tends to frame the US and NATO as destabilizing forces in the Arctic, and the smaller Arctic states as pawns of the US. [...] This gap is exploitable and inhibits responses, particularly in the hybrid threat space.”128 While opinions on the threat that Russia poses have shifted since the outbreak of the war, Canada and the US continue to consider China as the number one threat to their Arctic interests. [...] In their policy direction, published in July 2021, the JEF nations acknowledged the increasingly hybrid character of conflicts and the need to adapt “to be able to respond effectively to competitors operating in the space below the threshold of conventional conflict.”161 At the most recent JEF leaders meeting in Amsterdam in March 2023, the JEF nations reaffirmed their commitment to cooperating on. [...] Zandee and Stoetman consider information and intelligence-sharing – in order to optimize situational awareness on the character and nature of the hybrid threats – as a key area in which the JEF can add value.163 According to the interviews conducted for the purpose of this research, finding a unified approach to addressing hybrid threats in the Arctic would be challenging. [...] Avoid unintentional escalation in the Arctic Given the visible increase in military activity in the Arctic region, and the number of close encounters with Russian aviation and naval units, it is particularly important for the Arctic states to have mechanisms in place to reduce the risk of unintended escalation.